almly....this is what i know....many are familiar with austin....a top pound for pound guy....a lefty.....at 5-5",fairly tall for a bantam....wins most of his bouts by stoppage....
the only problem i have is that the bantam division has been terrible for years....i saw austin win the title from tough mbulelo botile...in all honesty,austin was getting an ass-whippin` when he landed a huge k.o. punch....i wonder what happens if he slides to feather and fights the morales,barrera`s hamed`s etc....granted,that`s around an 8 pound jump....and for small guys,that`s considerable...
marquez is the devastating juan manuel marquez` brother(the one that just destroyed manuel medina)....he got off to a shaky start in his career,but has gotten so much better as he has matured....another guy that punches very,very hard at this weight....he has beaten mark "too sharp"johnson twice in a row(stopping him in their last fight).....this may be partly due to johnson being out of boxing for a year and a half due to legal troubles(wife beating,i think).....that`s the question...were the johnson wins a sign that marquez is now a force?....or has johnson slipped....also at 5-5",marquez is just as tall as austin....
my thoughts are this-i think i like taking a shot with marquez at +300(i got +220 or+240-i should have waited).....i am hedging with austin -100 by stoppage....i could lose both ways...but,marquez has lost 3 times earlier in his career....all 3 by stoppage....chances are,he hasn`t been in with anyone that can punch any better than austin(although johnson could punch at 5-3" tall)....also,i think that if anyone in the division has an outside shot at austin(who is considered head and shoulders better than the rest of the weak bantanweight division),it may be heavy punching marquez...now that brother juan manuel has his first(and long overdue) title,word is that rafael is totally goosed about winning himself a title....and rafael has been devastating of late....throw in the fact that he had no problem with strong,difficult and cagey lefty "too sharp" johnson(once also VERY high on the pound for pound list)....
so,i`m taking marquez + whatever(better than +200).....and hedging with austin by stoppage at -100....if austin wins by decision,i get poked in every orifice....if austin wins by stoppage,i at least break even....if marquez pulls the upset,i have a decent payday...
think about it...this thing opened at only around -220 or -240 austin...he`s a recognized pound for pound top 10 guy....those odds aren`t real high in boxing for someone of austin`s stature...vegas isn`t stupid...they know that marquez has a shot(or at least believe he has)...i think they realize that the knowledgable boxing guys would have taken a big shot with marquez at reaaly high odds.........add the fact that marquez` brother just won his title....and that marquez has shown he can stay with a tough lefty in too sharp johnson....also the fact that all marquez` losses earlier in his career were by stoppage...
that`s why i`m playing it like i am....i don`t like losing money unneccesarily....i`d rather hedge a bit...could i take a double loss?....maybe.....but,i think it`s worth a shot....odds are that austin will probably win...but,i think marquez may have a shot.....
if you like austin,you might want to grab him now...the closer the fight gets,the more favorite money will pour in on the name guy....
last tidbits.....tim austin is handled by don king and managed by king`s son carl.....i doubt that marquez wins a decision(but,only 2 of his 31 bouts went to the judges)....
austin---25-0-1...22 k.o.`s
marquez--28-3...26 k.o.`s
also,the fight is in vegas...the home of boxing shenanigans...
finally-it`s not out of the question that austin gets in there and finds out that marquez is as strong or stronger than himself and then decides to box....he knows don king is the promoter.....so,there are potential problems....i can understand someone wanting to leave this hedge wager alone.....there are better bets down the road....just trying to give opinions,options and info...many friends of mine that are very boxing savvy,think i`m crazy to even consider marquez......g.l. in whatever you do...
[This message was edited by sphincter on 02-10-03 at 06:32 PM.]
[This message was edited by sphincter on 02-10-03 at 06:33 PM.]
[This message was edited by sphincter on 02-10-03 at 06:47 PM.]
[This message was edited by sphincter on 02-10-03 at 06:55 PM.]
